Peace in Ukraine: Putin's Gambit and the Never-Ending War

 

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Nearly three years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we're all asking the same question: What was Putin thinking? More importantly, what would it take to end this conflict? Let's break it down.

Putin's Puzzling Play Here's the thing - Russia's invasion of Ukraine makes zero economic sense. Ukraine's resources? Russia's got plenty. Territory? They already have more than they can handle. Economic benefits? Nada. In fact, occupying Ukraine would be a massive financial burden for Moscow. It's like buying a fixer-upper house that's on fire - not exactly a smart investment.

The Real Game Plot twist: What if the war itself is the point? Russia was becoming increasingly irrelevant on the global stage, relegated to being just another energy supplier. With the world moving towards green energy, even that role was under threat. By starting this war, Putin has forced Russia back into global relevance - through brute force rather than economic or technological achievement.

The Economics of War Surprisingly, Russia's wartime economy isn't doing too badly. Through a combination of military spending, state orders, and controlled prices, Putin has created a kind of wartime Keynesianism that's keeping things afloat. Sure, international sanctions have bit, but not as hard as many expected. China's helping too, though that's a frenemy situation if there ever was one.

The Peace Puzzle Trump's promising to broker peace if elected, but here's the catch: Putin might not actually want peace. The war is serving multiple purposes for him:

• Keeping Russia relevant internationally
• Maintaining domestic control through wartime measures
• Creating a new model of international relations based on military force
• Providing economic stimulus through military spending

What Could Peace Look Like? Short answer: Nothing stable, at least not now. Any peace deal would likely be more of a pause button than a stop button. Ukraine wants security guarantees and NATO membership. Russia wants... well, that's unclear, but their demands are basically "Ukraine shouldn't exist as an independent country."

The Bigger Picture This isn't just about Ukraine anymore. It's about rewriting the rules of international relations. The democratic world is struggling to respond to a situation where a major power has decided that military aggression is a legitimate tool of foreign policy. And without getting China and India on board, isolating Russia is about as effective as using a chocolate teapot.

Looking Ahead The uncomfortable truth? We're in uncharted territory. Traditional diplomatic solutions might not work anymore. The world needs new mechanisms to deal with a situation where a major power has chosen perpetual conflict as its strategy. Until then, any peace in Ukraine will be as stable as a house of cards in a hurricane.

So what's next? That's the trillion-dollar question. But one thing's clear: this conflict has changed the global playbook, and we're all still trying to figure out what the new rules are.

Would you like me to expand on any of these aspects?

see large analysis: 

What can peace in Ukraine look like and what was on Putin’s mind when he started the war?

See also:

Video: BBC - First Two years of war