2022 - Third year of decline in global trade

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 UNCTAD - The World Organization for Global Trade, a UN body, has published the infographic that tracks the volume of global trade over the past decades. The data in the latest update is for 2021, when there was a 7.5% drop due to the Covid pandemic. It was the second consecutive year of decline, the cause being the same in 2019.


Data for 2022 will only be available next year. However, all preliminary data points to a third straight year of decline. Pandemic-related restrictions have also affected global trade in 2022, primarily by quarantining some regions of China, the country that is most active in international markets and normally accounts for the largest volume of exported goods. But even more global trade was affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has massively distorted international markets and caused global inflation, especially for the energy market, including hydrocarbons, and the food market. Also, the drought that has massively affected many countries in Europe will lead to further declines in trade in agri-food products.

To be sure, the gross volume of international trade will also decrease in 2022. However, due to global inflation and the extraordinary increase in energy prices, the decrease in the volume of goods will be compensated by the increase in prices, and the financial results will thus be weighted.

Note: the forecast for 2022 does not appear in the UNCTAD data. It was extrapolated by the authors of this blog from data published in the economic media, primarily The Economist and FT.

source: https://infovizualgraf.blogspot.com/2022/08/al-treilea-de-scadere-comertului-global.html

see also: WTO Forecast for 2022-2023



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